Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Choices, choices, choices
Take Heather's post today. This joke really is pretty funny. The comedian is definately doing his job. I'll put the joke here, so you don't have to taint yourself by going to her blog:
I look at these people and can’t quite believe that they exist. Are they professional actors? I wonder. Or are they simply laymen who want a lot of attention?
To put them in perspective, I think of being on an airplane. The flight attendant comes down the aisle with her food cart and, eventually, parks it beside my seat. “Can I interest you in the chicken?” she asks. “Or would you prefer the platter of shit with bits of broken glass in it?”
To be undecided in this election is to pause for a moment and then ask how the chicken is cooked.
That is good comedy there, made me smirk a little bit. Pause. Then think about it a bit more. If you do, you start saying to yourself. "Now wait a minute, which candidate is the chicken? Oh! oh that's good! This guy doesn't even know that his own joke works for both parties! HAHAHA!! Heather doesn't get it either! That! That is freakin' hilarious! It's like one of them co-ed jokes, only he thinks it's not!"
To fix this joke up you have to add something to the end.
After devouring the chicken you discover it was marinated in hemlock with arsenic garnishing.
Not so funny now, is it?
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
Bull vs Bear, recessions, depressions, and other definitions
Bull Market - The general economy and stock market are doing well. To feel bullish, is to have optimism that something is going to perform well, be it individual stocks or the broader economy as a whole. Bull markets experience good growth, easily above inflation.
Bear Market - The general economy and stock market are not doing well. To feel bearish, is to have a belief that something will not perform well, be it individual stocks or the broader economy as a whole. Bear markets experience poor growth. The key indexes will often trend downward or sideways (stagnate). A bear market does not equal negative economy growth though. An economy can still be growing, but not well enough for stock prices to rise.
Recession - Negative growth in the economy. This is often measured by the growth of our gross domestic product (GDP). If the GDP growth is negative, that is a recession. Your economy is receding as it were. A recession is usually about a couple of quarters long.
Depression - There is not a clear line between a depression and a recession. In general a depression is a prolonged recession. So a recession that continues for 6 quarters of negative growth would likely be called a depression. The percentage drop of in the GDP would also indicate a depression instead of a recession. A 10% drop in the GDP would likely be considered a depression.
We've been in a bear market since October of 2007. That sucks! We've all been losing money in our mutual funds ever since. Let's cut the crap, find the bottom, and get on with making money again. Oh and a good way of getting to the bottom, is in a recession. We could fight off a recession for a long time, if the government keeps being stupid. We could find ourselves in a stagnated bear market indefinately (which might then also be defined as a depression), in the vain attempt to avoid a recession.
Monday, October 06, 2008
Market behaving normally
I don't remember where I was or who I was talking with (if you know me very well, you know it was more like "who I was talking at"), but several months ago I telling someone that we needed to see the DOW drop below 11,000. Remember that back then it was only a housing problem, and not a credit problem/economy crisis. I went so far as to say that I would feel better if the market dropped all they way down past 10,000.
Well, today I got my wish!
I know that some would like to have everyone terrified right now. "Worst financial crisis, since the great depression!" and that kind of stuff. Fact is, this isn't anything at all like the great depression. We haven't even hit a recession yet, let alone a bad one, and we probably won't really see anything more than a couple of quarters of a recession.
As far as a society goes a depression would be good for us (we're not going to get one). A depression would mold this country. It would really force people to man up and take some responsibility for themselves. Maybe make us the kind of people our grandparents, (great-grandparents) that truly are great people, would be proud of. The no-account layabouts that just want everything now, and wanted it on a silver platter, would die of starvation, or learn to get up and go to work.
What we really have is a market correction. The weak have been culled from the stock market. They have made way for those with testicular fortitude to jump in and make some real money...in time.
I regret that the awesome money making bull market that will follow the current pull-back will be weakened by a spineless government that will buy up worthless securities (with your money by the way), weakening the power of the uptrend, but you voted for them (Republican or Democrat), so it's your fault.
EDIT: Another good sign for the economy is how many economic experts have become pessimistic. The economy likes to do the opposite of the general feeling. We've lately had some of the most well known hard core bulls turn bearish. That's great news! When someone like Jim Cramer is telling everyone to sell everything, and go to cash, you know the time is soon at hand to begin buying all of the lowballed stocks out there.
Thursday, October 02, 2008
Water vs. Bomb
I don't keep a catalog of video games. I tend to sell them back and get a new one when I'm done. On the DS the only game I've kept so far is Mario Kart. Everyone should always own at least one version of Mario Kart at all times. I've learned that you can download a new puzzle every week through the wi-fi service, for Professor Layton. So I have a backlog of several puzzles there to do, and a continued stream of puzzles. I guess I've found a second DS game to keep.