Monday, October 06, 2008

Market behaving normally

There is going to be a lot of panic induced fear mongering about the stock market and the economy.

I don't remember where I was or who I was talking with (if you know me very well, you know it was more like "who I was talking at"), but several months ago I telling someone that we needed to see the DOW drop below 11,000. Remember that back then it was only a housing problem, and not a credit problem/economy crisis. I went so far as to say that I would feel better if the market dropped all they way down past 10,000.

Well, today I got my wish!

I know that some would like to have everyone terrified right now. "Worst financial crisis, since the great depression!" and that kind of stuff. Fact is, this isn't anything at all like the great depression. We haven't even hit a recession yet, let alone a bad one, and we probably won't really see anything more than a couple of quarters of a recession.

As far as a society goes a depression would be good for us (we're not going to get one). A depression would mold this country. It would really force people to man up and take some responsibility for themselves. Maybe make us the kind of people our grandparents, (great-grandparents) that truly are great people, would be proud of. The no-account layabouts that just want everything now, and wanted it on a silver platter, would die of starvation, or learn to get up and go to work.

What we really have is a market correction. The weak have been culled from the stock market. They have made way for those with testicular fortitude to jump in and make some real time.

I regret that the awesome money making bull market that will follow the current pull-back will be weakened by a spineless government that will buy up worthless securities (with your money by the way), weakening the power of the uptrend, but you voted for them (Republican or Democrat), so it's your fault.

EDIT: Another good sign for the economy is how many economic experts have become pessimistic. The economy likes to do the opposite of the general feeling. We've lately had some of the most well known hard core bulls turn bearish. That's great news! When someone like Jim Cramer is telling everyone to sell everything, and go to cash, you know the time is soon at hand to begin buying all of the lowballed stocks out there.

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Blogger Matt "The Bull" said...

I am confused; you are happy because of wich?

1) we will all learn our lesson the hard way and go through tough times and hopefully somday; grow from it. (this option could have your family on the street)
2) your are happy because when we finally hit bottom then the real money can be made. where as before stock based investments where a diminishing utility because of an eventual ceiling???
or is it both
I like 2 more than 1. in number one you seem to believe that it is the poor people who smoke drink and do nothing living on welfare in new Orleans rather than yourself. are you willing to get up and go to "work" too? you must believe you already are. and so do they. I am not talking down to you I am really trying to figure out where our conservative zeal for a crash is coming from. If it really hits bottom. people like me are gonna make alot more money than we could have before. I understand that. I don't like our country looking week though. It makes other countries think "heres our chance to take em out".

5:35 PM  
Blogger BugHunter said...

I might as well delete the post if it made you that confused.

I don't even know where to begin, other than rewriting the whole thing.

You are either totally buying everything Washington and the media is in "We are about to hit another great depression. Ohh noes!!!"

Or you think that stocks can hit a peak value. Once they hit that they can't go higher...evar!

Both are wrong, so your options 1 and 2 can't be happening.

IF this was a depression...WHICH IT DEFINATELY IS NOT...I think I'd end up in my back yard growing corn, and over at the grandparents, raising

As far as how the stock market works, there are some books I could recommend. Or you could start at

7:42 PM  
Blogger Matt "The Bull" said...

what would be a more telling sign that this was a depression? once it is one? is stock market crash one of the signs? Black monday or friday or whatever. what else? in the sense that people arn't running to banks to take their money out or lining up in the streets for soup I have to agree this is not (yet) a "great" depression. And I am not an expert so I have to relly on what I hear in the media. or someone like you can tell why the sky isn't falling :) Is Hank paulson an expert?

9:28 PM  
Blogger Matt "The Bull" said...

what I really want to know is what about it all makes you excited

9:29 PM  
Blogger Wow Panda said...

He is excited because he think we are near the end of all this. And I think that just might be true. We bought a investment property recently, and if I had more cash I would buy more funds right now (already upped my 401k contrib).

Not because I read his post, because I believe there are opportunities. Of course I could be wrong and pay my price, but that is how capitalism works.

3:14 PM  

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